Friday, September 15, 2017

WATCHLIST FOR TODAY 15 SEPTEMBER 17

1. INARI ...monitor for btreakoutof 2.53. TP 2.65 & 2.80

2. LIIHEN...monitor for breakout above 3.46...with increased volume 

3. YONGTAI...EP 1.48 ....TP 1.55

4. CRESBLD...EP 1.10....TP11.20

Our market is still under mild consolidation mode but selective ace & speculative counters should see rotational plays.

Steel theme play has seen most steel counter being pushed up considerably high. ..be cautious of a possible retracement in this sector which badly need a breather though the longer term outlook for metal counters look promising. 

Can also look into rubber counters as rubber price is on the uptrend

Mild Support Tipped For Singapore Shares

The Singapore stock market has finished lower in two straight sessions, dipping almost 15 points or 0.5 percent in that span. The Straits Times Index now rests just above the 3,220-point plateau although it may stop the bleeding on Friday.
The global forecast for the Asian markets is murky, thanks to mixed economic data, geopolitical concerns and a bump in crude oil prices. The European and U.S. markets were mixed and little changed and the Asian bourses figure to follow suit.
The STI finished modestly lower on Thursday following losses from the financials, plantations and industrials.
Among the actives, Singapore Press Holdings surged 1.91 percent, while Yangzijiang Shipbuilding skidded 1.70 percent, CapitaLand Mall Trust tumbled 1.44 percent, Golden Agri-Resources climbed 1.32 percent, Thai Beverage dropped 1.08 percent, Wilmar International shed 0.91 percent, Genting Singapore lost 0.43 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation fell 0.18 percent, DBS Group dipped 0.15 percent and SingTel and Hutchison Port Holdings were unchanged.
The lead from Wall Street is unclear as stocks moved in opposite directions on Thursday - eventually finishing mixed, with the Dow hitting a fresh record closing high.
The Dow rose 45.30 points or 0.2 percent to 22,203.48, while the NASDAQ slid 31.10 points or 0.5 percent to 6,429.08 and the S&P 500 fell 2.75 points or 0.1 percent to 2,495.62.
In economic news, the Labor Department noted a bigger than expected increase in consumer prices in August. The faster rate of inflation growth has raised concerns about the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
The Labor Department showed an unexpected pullback in initial jobless claims in the week ended September 9th.
Geopolitical concerns also generated some selling pressure after North Korea threatened to use nuclear weapons to "sink" Japan and reduce the U.S. to "ashes and darkness" for supporting a new round of sanctions by the United Nations.
Crude oil futures briefly surged above $50 a barrel for the first time in a month Thursday, as traders bet on renewed demand from U.S. refineries. October WTI oil gained 59 cents or 1.2 percent to $49.89/bbl, a six-week high.

Thursday, August 17, 2017

BIMB 'buy', YTL 'hold', Johor Tin 'outperform'

BIMB HOLDINGS BHD
Buy (maintained)
Target price: RM5.05
We has kept its “buy” call on BIMB Holdings Bhd with a target price of RM5.05.
The research firm said there was uncertainty regarding the potential corporate re-organisation of its financial holding company structure that could be a key stock overhang for now.
A swift resolution of this could spark a re-rating, it said.
A number of banks in Malaysia such as RHB Bank Bhd, Alliance Financial Group Bhd and Affin Hwang Investment Bank have recently announced corporate exercises that involved the collapsing of their respective financial holding company structure.
“This essentially entails the transferring of the listed entity from the financial holding company to the bank.
“Financial holding companies that have existing financial holding company debts would have to undertake a dilutive rights issue to repay such debts in the process,” the research house said.
In BIMB’s case, the group has an outstanding 10-year sukuk amounting to roughly RM1.2bil, which means it would have to either undertake a one-for-four rights issue or dispose of its stake in Syarikat Takaful to redeem the sukuk at an earlier-than-scheduled date.
Nevertheless, we said BIMB’s share price has priced in the dilution if such an exercise was to be carried out.
“Given the group’s relatively-high holding company fully-loaded CET1 of 12.6%, we believe that it should be sufficient to meet Bank Negara’s minimum capital adequacy ratio requirements for a financial holding company in 2019.
“As such, the group should have no issues maintaining its current financial holding company structure and to gradually pay off its sukuk without having to raise a dilutive rights issue.
“But it should carefully assess whether there is an urgency to carry out such a dilutive exercise that is punitive to shareholders if existing capital base is sufficient to meet Bank Negara’s capital adequacy ratio for financial holding company in 2019,” it said.
On its oil and gas (O&G) exposure, BIMB’s total O&G loans account for 8.7% of its total loans books (RM3.5bil), while sukuk exposure stood at about 2% of its total investment securities portfolio (about RM308mil).
Of the 8.7% O&G loan exposure, nearly 90% were consumer loans (personal and mortgages) to O&G employees in relatively large corporate firms.
YTL CORP BHD
Hold (maintained)
Target price: RM1.44
AFFIN Hwang Capital has maintained its “hold” call on YTL Corp Bhd, with a lower target price of RM1.44 from RM1.70 previously.
Despite forecasting an improvement in financial year 2018 (FY18) forecast earnings, Affin Hwang believed the current share price has priced in the earnings growth expectations.
The improvement was mainly due to the forecast low-base effect in FY17.
“We cut forecast dividend payment per share (DPS) to 7 sen in FY17-FY19, following the 30% to 34% cut in our forecasts earnings per share, due to weaker results from the cement operations,” the research house said.
Affin Hwang said there could also be more downside risks if YTL Power lowered its DPS below 10 sen, as a 0.5 sen decline in YTL Power’s DPS would lead to a 0.2 sen reduction in YTL Corp’s DPS.
In the meantime, the house said the cement business remained challenging in FY17 due to overcapacity and weak demand from the property segment.
Although the research house expects a higher demand from infrastructure and property in FY18, it believed the incremental demand is not sufficient to absorb the overcapacity, limiting the upside of recovery in earnings.
“Given that more than 30% of our realisable net asset value (RNAV) is derived from its cement operations, changes in the segment will have a significant impact on our realisable net asset value (RNAV).
Apart from the construction job for the Tanjung Jati “A” power plant project (which Affin Hwang expects YTL Power to achieve financial close by year-end), it also believed that YTL Corp could benefit from rail-related infrastructure projects in Malaysia, given its track record in delivering the Express Rail Link.
“We expect close to RM120bil worth of rail-related contracts will be awarded from the second half of 2017 onwards.
“However, the earnings upside from these contracts are unlikely to compensate for the weaker results overall,” it added.
JOHORE TIN BHD
Outperform
TargetpPrice: RM1.86
PUBLIC Investment Bank (PublicInvest) has initiated coverage on Johore Tin Bhd (JTB) with an “outperform” call and a target price of RM1.86, implying an upside of 36.8% from its last traded price.
“We like JTB for its growth opportunities in the milk powder segment, increasing food and beverage contributions from potential capacity expansion plans in the sweetened condensed and evaporated milk segments, and growth opportunity in the American continent from new ventures in Mexico as well as healthy balance sheet,” PublicInvest said.
As such, the research house believed that JTB deserved a higher price to reflect its underlying value.
On JTB’s milk powder segment, the management expects utilisation rate of its new milk powder packing factory to increase from 35% in FY17 up to 70% in FY19.
“At the current capacity utilisation of 15%-16%, we estimate this segment currently generates an operating profit of about RM2mil-RM3mil in the first quarter of FY17.
“If it manages to achieve a 75% utilisation, operating profits may grow exponentially to between RM50mil and RM55mil, although this will take a good three to four years to attain.
“We anticipate the addition from the profit of Able Food may potentially double the group’s bottom line (which was just RM35.6mil in FY16),” PublicInvest said.
In the next six to eight months, JTB plans to upgrade its machinery and production lines for the sweetened condensed and evaporated milk businesses.

ECONOMIC NEWS


· Press Metal’s 2Q net profit up slightly to RM150m, declares 1.5 sen dividend
· Dialog posts 33% increase in 4Q net profit on higher JV contributions
· Sunway acquires land in Wangsa Maju for RM51m
· Taliworks 2Q net profit plunges 92% on higher operating costs
· Pharmaniaga’s 2Q net profit down 36% on temporary closure of certain production lines
· Paramount’s 2Q net profit down 39% on lower property segment earnings
· Fed policymakers grow more worried about weak inflation
· As Nafta talks begin, Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda looms large
· US oil drillers keep pressure on OPEC with record shale output
· US housing starts, permits down sharply in July
· China regains spot as largest foreign US creditor
· China's Belt and Road acquisitions surge despite outbound capital crackdown

August 15 + 16 day performance express • Quarter report summary for 15/8 + 16/8

Friends who are interested can learn more about quarterly reports for more details! PM me or register - goo.gl/Pm187a
It's time for quarterly reports! Today we combine these two days with a good company. Many companies in this quarter are less than in the last quarter, and they are in line with the forecasts of analysts a few months ago, but there is a good surprise for companies. The author only focuses on the performance of a number of companies, and may ignore some details.

[Petgas]
- Market Cap: RM37.358 bil
- Turnover breakthroughs.
- net Qoq-8.18 %; yoy + 5.34 %
- it's a little bit higher than last year.
- it's a stable blue chip.
- the oversupply of natural gas is one of the hidden worries 


【PMETAL】
- Market Cap: Rm12. 284 billing
- Turnover and net breakthrough history.
- net Qoq + 1.43 %; yoy + 2.80 %
- profit from operation.
- Fy2017 1 H already earn 23.9 % MORE THAN QSI 1 H
- China's reduced production and metal prices.
- next company will be on fire.
- estimated fy2017 overall performance lasts better than qsi


【】 dialog
- Market Cap: Rm10. 888 bills
- Turnover and net breakthrough history.
- net Qoq + 9.69 %; yoy + 32.87 %
- Fy2017 Earns 25.67 % more than qsi
- the middle and Downstream Business of the big horse and gas industry is very positive.
- currently pe= 28, not cheap, but there's room for growth.
- management seems to have a lot of confidence in it.


【AHEALTH】
- Market Cap: RM555.3 mil
- Turnover breakthroughs.
- the net is the highest in six quarters.
- net Qoq + 2.04 %; yoy + 6.72 %
- net cash, net cash up to rm75. 5 MIL
- there's only 117 million shares in stock.


【I】
- Market Cap: RM196.2 mil
- Turnover breakthroughs.
- net Qoq + 3.08 %; yoy + 821.69 %
- profitability is starting to stabilize, for three consecutive quarterly net gains over rm2 mil
- main credit to the sales volume of metal-related products and to higher prices
- the company has also launched a comprehensive development project, which is expected to be launched.
- the review of performance and prospect has been written for two pages.
- management seems to be very optimistic about fy2017.


【ORNA】
- Market Cap: RM104.6 mil
- Turnover is historic.
- net Qoq + 54.59 %; yoy + 138.12 %
- cash flow is very positive, and cash is gradually increasing.
- although production costs increase, the sales increase or the net.
- there's only 75250 units in stock, low circulation.
- the stock price has risen almost 15 % today %, currently pe= 8.6


Planting Stocks, such as bkawan and klk, have declined, and the planting unit should not have too much to look at.